It has been a long time since the “lottery” had generated so much enthusiasm! Perhaps even more than the draft itself because as in 2003 with LeBron James or in 2019 with Zion Williamson, we already know who will be chosen as number 1 of the draft. It will be Victor Wembanyama, the new phenomenon of world basketball, and the Frenchman already knows that there is no suspense since ten days ago, he posted this message on social networks: “10 days before knowing my future team. It’s really a crazy thing”.
On paper, three franchises have the best chance to win this lottery and therefore have the opportunity to select Victor Wembanyama as number 1: the Rockets, the Spurs and the Pistons.
WHERE AND WHEN?
The lottery takes place in a small room in Chicago, without cameras, but with an NBA executive, a journalist and a bailiff, and this May 16, the draw begins at 02:00 French time, just before the first game of the conference finals between the Nuggets and the Lakers. It will be broadcast live on BeIN Sports. A select few will be able to watch the event with Victor Wembanyama on the Champs Elysees.
WHO PARTICIPATES IN THE LOTTERY?
In theory, the lottery is for the franchises that did not qualify for the playoffs, the 14 teams with the worst records. They are given a spot, and therefore a chance to win the first pick, based on their regular season record. The worse a team was in the regular season, the more chances it has to be picked first.
The arrival of the “play-in” has changed the theory a bit since the NBA must wait for the play-offs to determine the “lottery teams”. The Bulls, Thunder, Raptors and Pelicans are all lottery teams this year.
WHAT ARE THE RULES?
Since 2019, the NBA has changed two key elements, which are designed to avoid “tanking” in the regular season.
– The three worst records of the season now have a 14 th chance to get the first place on the night of the “lottery”. Until 2018, the worst record had 25 percent, or a one-in-four chance, of landing the top pick. The next two worst records then had a 19.9 and 15.6 e chance, respectively, of getting that first pick. A system put in place since 2005 and that the “tanking” had put to bad for several seasons. With this reform, the worst team has only one chance in seven to win the lottery, against one chance in four before.
– Until 2018, only the first three picks were determined by the “lottery”, and the worst record of the regular season was therefore guaranteed to select in the Top 4. With this reform, we will go to four picks designated by the lottery, and that means at the same time that the worst record of the regular season could have only the 5th pick. That would be Detroit this year.
HOW DOES THE DRAFT WORK?
The NBA uses 14 ping-pong balls, numbered 1 through 14, and places them in a machine that resembles the Lotto machine. In total, there are 1,001 possible combinations (regardless of the order in which the balls come out: clearly, the 1-2-3-4 combination is the same as the 4-3-2-1 combination). These combinations are assigned to teams based on the desired probability. The Rockets, the Pistons and the Spurs thus receive 140, against 5 to the Pelicans.
A first draw is used to determine the first choice. The balls are shuffled for twenty seconds, then each ball is drawn at ten second intervals. Once the name of the first team is known, the balls are put back into the machine and the process is repeated to determine the second, third and fourth choices. If the combination of a previously drawn team falls, the draw is repeated.
Only the first four choices are drawn. From 5th to 14th, the lottery then takes into account the rankings.
WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF EACH FRANCHISE PICKING FIRST?
Here are the odds (in %) for each team.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Detroit
|
14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 47.9 | |||||||||
|
Houston
|
14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 27.8 | 20.1 | ||||||||
|
San Antonio
|
14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 14.8 | 26.0 | 7.1 | |||||||
|
Charlotte
|
11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 27.1 | 18.0 | 2.4 | ||||||
|
Portland
|
11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 18.2 | 25.5 | 8.6 | 0.6 | |||||
|
Orlando
|
9.0 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 29.7 | 20.6 | 3.8 | 0.2 | |||||
|
Indiana
|
7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 19.8 | 33.9 | 13.0 | 1.4 | >0.0 | |||||
|
Washington
|
4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 34.5 | 36.2 | 8.5 | 0.5 | >0.0 | |||||
|
Utah
|
4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 46.4 | 29.4 | 3.9 | 0.1 | >0.0 | |||||
|
Dallas*
|
4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 60.6 | 17.9 | 1.2 | >0.0 | >0.0 | |||||
|
Chicago**
|
1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 77.6 | 13.4 | 0.4 | >0.0 | ||||||
|
OKC
|
1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 85.2 | 6.6 | 0.1 | |||||||
|
Toronto
|
1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 92.9 | 2.3 | ||||||||
|
New Orleans
|
0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 97.6 |
* Top 10 protected pick. It will belong to New York if the Mavericks do not select in the Top 10
** Top 4 protected pick. It will belong to the Magic if the Bulls do not select in the Top 4.
WHO ARE THE FRANCHISE REPRESENTATIVES?
Here is the complete list of the personalities present.
- Detroit Pistons: Ben Wallace
- Houston Rockets: Ime Udoka
- San Antonio Spurs: Peter J. Holt
- Charlotte Hornets: Mark Williams
- Portland Trail Blazers: Brandon Roy
- Orlando Magic: Jamahl Mosley
- Indiana Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton
- Washington Wizards: Wes Unseld Jr.
- Utah Jazz: Collin Sexton
- Dallas Mavericks: Nico Harrison
- Chicago Bulls: Dalen Terry
- Oklahoma City Thunder: Nick Collison
- Toronto Raptors: Bobby Webster
- New Orleans Pelicans: David Griffin
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